RESUMO
Background: The benefits of treatment for many conditions are time dependent. The burden of these emergency care sensitive conditions (ECSCs) is especially high in low- and middle-income countries. Our objective was to analyze geospatial trends in ECSCs and characterize regional disparities in access to emergency care in Brazil. Methods: From publicly available datasets, we extracted data on patients assigned an ECSC-related ICD-10 code and on the country's emergency facilities from 2015-2019. Using ArcGIS, OpenStreetMap, and WorldPop, we created catchment areas corresponding to 180 minutes of driving distance from each hospital. We then used ArcGIS to characterize space-time trends in ECSC admissions and to complete an Origin-Destination analysis to determine the path from household to closest hospital. Findings: There were 1362 municipalities flagged as "hot spots," areas with a high volume of ECSCs. Of those, 69.7% were more than 180 minutes (171 km) from the closest emergency facility. These municipalities were primarily located in the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espiríto Santo, Tocantins, and Amapá. In the North region, only 69.1% of the population resided within 180 minutes of an emergency hospital. Interpretations: Significant geographical barriers to accessing emergency care exist in certain areas of Brazil, especially in peri-urban areas and the North region. One limitation of this approach is that geolocation was not possible in some areas and thus we are likely underestimating the burden of inadequate access. Subsequent work should evaluate ECSC mortality data. Funding: This study was funded by the Duke Global Health Institute Artificial Intelligence Pilot Project.
RESUMO
Background: Preterm birth (PTB) is a growing health issue worldwide, currently considered the leading cause of newborn deaths. To address this challenge, the present work aims to develop an algorithm capable of accurately predicting the week of delivery supporting the identification of a PTB in Brazil. Methods: This a population-based study analyzing data from 3,876,666 mothers with live births distributed across the 3,929 Brazilian municipalities. Using indicators comprising delivery characteristics, primary care work processes, and physical infrastructure, and sociodemographic data we applied a machine learning-based approach to estimate the week of delivery at the point of care level. We tested six algorithms: eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Elastic Net, Quantile Ordinal Regression - LASSO, Linear Regression, Ridge Regression and Decision Tree. We used the root-mean-square error (RMSE) as a precision. Findings: All models obtained RMSE indexes close to each other. The lower levels of RMSE were obtained using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting approach which was able to estimate the week of delivery within a 2.09 window 95%IC (2.090-2.097). The five most important variables to predict the week of delivery were: number of previous deliveries through Cesarean-Section, number of prenatal consultations, age of the mother, existence of ultrasound exam available in the care network, and proportion of primary care teams in the municipality registering the oral care consultation. Interpretation: Using simple data describing the prenatal care offered, as well as minimal characteristics of the pregnant, our approach was capable of achieving a relevant predictive performance regarding the week of delivery. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development - Brazil, (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPQ acronym in portuguese) Support of the research project named: Data-Driven Risk Stratification for Preterm Birth in Brazil: Development of a Machine Learning-Based Innovation for Health Care- Grant: OPP1202186.
